The Chicago Cubs signed free agent pitcher Matthew Boyd this offseason to a two-year, $29 million deal. It was the first significant move the team made in preparation of their stated “all in” 2025 push towards postseason play.
And even right now, the signing of the soon-to-be 34-year-old Boyd ranks as the team’s second biggest offseason acquisition, behind their trade for Houston Astros star Kyle Tucker.
Adding Boyd to a rotation that already had Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Javier Assad seemed to be a pretty significant move.
The Reality Regarding Matthew Boyd
However, as things may turn out, even under a best case scenario, the Cubs will have merely swapped the limited innings and output of Kyle Hendricks for a more effective replacement. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s a far cry from some fans’ expectations that the Cubs might’ve added a top-of-rotation stud when they got Boyd.
In a recent interview on 670 The Score, Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy talked about Boyd and what the team can realistically expect from the veteran pitcher who just came back from Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2024 campaign.
Per Hottovy:
“There’s definitely some risk/reward there… If we’re sitting here today and we say, ‘Matt Boyd throws 120 innings of really good baseball,’ I think we’d all be really happy about that. Anything above that would be great…We know when he’s on the field, he’s a really good pitcher…
One thing [Craig] Counsell talks about all the time is that it’s a puzzle to cover 1,400, almost 1,500 innings in the course of the season. Starters, if you’re a good team and your starting rotation is good, you’re covering 850 to 950 of those innings. It’s all one big puzzle. You’re putting the pieces together.
I think the combination of signing a Matt Boyd, with the upside, but with some injury history, with guys like Colin Rea being able to cover some of that, knowing that you have some guys who can step in to cover some major innings if we need to make some moves, I think is very important.”
Sobering Words
So, that’s 120 innings, optimistically, to replace Hendricks’ 130.2 innings and then some significant shuffling for fill-ins.
But, really, what could one expect?
The oft-injured Boyd has thrown a combined 202.2 innings over the last four seasons and hasn’t broken 100+ innings since 2019. The hopes are that the 2023 Tommy John surgery repaired the damage that has been breaking the 10-year veteran down.
The reality, though, is that the Cubs’ hopes are just hopes and a calculated gamble based on the pitcher’s quality comeback at the end of last season and brilliant postseason performances that saw him give up just one earned run in 11.2 innings for the Cleveland Guardians.
The Plan All Along
That’s why the Cubs picked up Colin Rea via free agency– a starting rotation puzzle piece for a rotation many deemed as already set. That’s also why the team was said to be targeting a high-end starting pitcher even after they signed Boyd.
A six-man rotation could be a way to keep Boyd full-season healthy and full-season productive. It could also aid Assad, who seems to have some durability issues.
It’s more likely, though, that the Cubs will roll with the customary 5-man cycle and pull pieces as wear, tear, and strain dictate.
Boyd, meanwhile, will be what the team knew he was all along– a back of the rotation, cross your fingers he stays healthy, calculated gamble.
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