The Chicago Cubs, even with a tough 7-4 loss to the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, took another step closer to clinching top seed status in the NL Wild Card race, and the opening series home field advantage that goes along with it.
With the White Sox beating the San Diego Padres 4-3, the Cubs’ magic number for clinching that top seed moves down to 4, with 8 games left in the season. Barring something disastrously awful, Chicago is all but guaranteed that top Wild Card slot.
What happened during Friday’s game, however, may give some real cause for concern when it comes to the team’s chances of making a deep postseason run this year.
Specifically, starter Shota Imanaga had yet another subpar outing, marked with multiple home run shots.
Shota Imanaga (again) killed with the long ball
The southpaw Japanese import would give up 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 innings, with all 3 earned runs coming via long ball.
Counting Friday’s game, Imanaga has given up 29 home runs in 139 innings pitched, topping his total of 27 home runs in 173.1 innings last season. His home run-per-9 innings rate is 1.88, the third worst in the majors this season, among pitchers with 100+ innings.
The 32-year-old is inherently a fly ball pitcher who, by nature, is going to give up a smattering of homers here and there. That’s understandable. And it’s also worth noting that he generally gets touched early before settling down and performing well the rest of his outing. 24 of his 29 home runs allowed have been solo shots, so he’s done well at limiting the damage of his slip-ups.
Big concerns over playoff performance
Aug 16, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) pitches during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images
Friday’s game, still, however, has to add to the concerns over just how well he’ll perform come playoff time. Whether or not it’s via solo home runs very early in his outing, you simply can’t give a playoff opponent a head start.
Imanaga is aware of this as well.
“That’s a topic I need to work on: lower the amount of home runs,” Imanaga said via his interpreter, Edwin Stanberry. “That’s something I’ve been trying to work on, but it seems like the opposing hitters have the upper hand there. I think I need to continue to make adjustments…
“It’s something I need to take a deeper look at and then see what we need to do…
“I want to pitch well for the next start and hopefully build momentum going into a start in the playoffs.”
Chicago Cubs weigh in
For what it’s worth, Cubs manager Craig Counsell doesn’t see all that much wrong with Imanaga, despite the box score results.
“I thought two of the pitches were pretty good pitches,” Counsell told media after Friday’s game. “There wasn’t a lot of other hits, right? He pitched really well other than that. So, those two homers, they were a little confusing to me. I thought they were pretty good pitches that, normally, he gets fly balls on those pitches.”
“That’s what’s still encouraging is there’s not hard contact kind of the rest of the way,” Counsell added. “His split-finger was really good tonight. His slider was really good tonight…There was some really good stuff in there, too.”
The problem is that Imanaga’s numbers have been trending down for a little while now. Over his last 4 starts, his ERA has been 4.91 and he’s given up 8 home runs in 22 innings in that stretch. When added to Matthew Boyd’s recent downturn (5.34 ERA over his last 10 starts), Imanaga’s issues take on an exaggerated level of importance heading into postseason play.
There’s still some time to figure things out for the Cubs’ “throwing philosopher,” but there’s not a whole lot of it.
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